In short, there will inevitably be an oil production peak - a moment of maximum oil production after which production will decline. The question is, not if but when. In the absence of any substitute energy sources, and there are no current examples of any energy source as cheap, portable or concentrated as oil, the decline in oil production rate will lead to a rapid rise in oil prices and a contraction of the globalised economy. Nation states excessively dependant on international trade, cheap transport and cheap energy will be vulnerable to the international economic shock that will follow the peak oil in production. Alternatively nations that achieve a localisation of their economy and re-orientate their purpose towards the achievement of community well-being and sustainability may avoid the worst excesses of scarcity.
Estimates of the exact timing of peak oil vary, but its effects are likely to be seen soon and almost certainly within the next 15 years. Nations that make any early change to sustainability could reap a substantial dividend which includes less inequality, reduced obesity and enhanced well being.A sustainable society implementing carbon rationing and other measures to reduce our dependance on oil gain an opportunity to reduce inequalities through the adoption of a framework called 'contraction and convergence'. Our modern, individualised consumer society has damaged our sense of community and well being so there is a real prospect that these can be repaired as we make a move to a more localised and sustainable way of life. Unfortunately
nations that make the change only when forced will be in a far worse position when there are no resources to invest in radical change. The former USSR faced a similar situation in the 1990s and the conflicts which arose are still ongoing.
The Paisley community should therefore see the sustainability agenda as an opportunity to build a sense of community and reap the health benefits while avoiding the downside of shortage. When energy scarcity becomes apparent we should be ready to act as advocates for a system that produces equity and health, opposing those who champion economic priorities. |
